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🏦 Fed Decision Summary

🔻 Rate Cut: 0.25% (25 bps) cut → new range 3.75% – 4.00% ( As per expectations)

🛑 QT Halt: Quantitative Tightening (bond selling) December se stop — Fed ab maturing bonds reinvest karega

🗳️ Vote: 10-2 — ek member ne zyada cut (0.50%) chaha, ek ne cut ke against vote diya



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📉 Reasons for Cut

Economy moderate growth pe hai, lekin jobs growth slow ho gayi

Unemployment thoda badha hai

Inflation ~3% — target se upar, par manageable

Government shutdown ke chalte economic data incomplete hai



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🔮 Future Outlook

Fed ne bola: “Data-dependent approach” rakhenge — future cuts depend karenge inflation & jobs pe

Market expect kar raha hai aur rate cuts aane wale months me



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💡 Impact

Borrowing cost (loan, credit card, mortgage) thoda kam hoga

QT halt hone se liquidity market me badhegi

Internal Fed divide dikh raha — kuch members ko inflation ka fear hai, kuch ko slowdown ka

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Implications & Market Relevance :


Support for growth stocks: The expectation of further easing may favor sectors sensitive to lower interest rates (tech, discretionary, high multiple names).

Volatility from policy uncertainty: With internal divisions and conditional guidance, the markets may react more strongly to incoming data surprises (inflation prints, jobs data).

Yield & discount rate effects: Lower rates reduce discounting of future earnings, benefitting equities; but if inflation surprises upward, yields may spike, hurting valuations.

Rotation & risk premium: The shifts in tone may drive rotation (from financials to growth) and affect equity risk premiums.

Risk of reversal: If inflation stays sticky or data comes in strong, the Fed might delay cuts or even raise hawkish posture—such a reversal may hurt equities.

Trap Mode On ??

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Happy Trading